The Impact of the 2024 Presidential Election on the US Stock Market
The Impact of the 2024 Presidential Election on the US Stock Market

The Impact of the 2024 Presidential Election on the US Stock Market

Thu, Oct 31, 2024 1:49 PM

ATTRIBUTION: Kazumasa Mise, CEO, Rakuten Trade

Introduction
The 2024 US Presidential election day is coming up, so investors are keeping a close eye on its potential impact on the US stock market. The outcome of the election could shake up many sectors like oil, media, technology. In this article, we'll explore how certain stocks and sectors will fare if Donald Trump wins for a second term, and the potential outcomes if the reverse happens — his opponent Kamala Harris becomes the first female US president.

Market Overview
The US stock market has shown resilience in 2024, with the S&P 500 up over 15% year-to-date. Despite mixed economic data and concerns over inflation, investors are optimistic about lower inflation rates, earnings growth, and the Fed to cut interest rate before the end of the year.

Potential Impact of Trump’s Re-Election
1. Oil Sector: The oil sector could get a massive boost if Trump wins. His administration has historically supported fossil fuel industries, and a continuation of this policy could lead to increased investments and favorable regulations for oil companies. Stocks like ExxonMobil and Chevron could benefit from such a scenario.

2. Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG): Trump’s own media company, which owns Truth Social, could attract more investor attention with him as President. Despite recent challenges and a drop in stock price, a Trump re-election could rejuvenate investor confidence and drive growth for TMTG.

3. Tesla: Elon Musk, a known supporter of Trump, could see Tesla benefiting from policies that favor business expansion. Tesla’s stock has been performing well, currently sitting at $214.11, and could thrive even more with supportive policies.

4. Other Linked Stocks: Companies closely associated with Trump’s policies, such as those in the construction and defense sectors, could also reap the rewards of a Trump win. Stocks like Caterpillar and Lockheed Martin might benefit from increased infrastructure spending and defense budgets.

Investment Strategies Based on Election Outcomes
1. If Trump Wins:
o Oil Stocks: Consider investing in major oil companies like ExxonMobil and Chevron.
o Media Stocks: Look into Trump Media & Technology Group for potential growth.
o Tech Stocks: Tesla and other tech companies with favorable ties to Trump’s policies could be good investments.
o Construction and Defense: Stocks like Caterpillar and Lockheed Martin could benefit from increased spending in these areas.

2. If Kamala Harris wins and Trump loses:
o Renewable Energy: A shift towards more environmentally friendly policies could benefit renewable energy stocks like NextEra Energy and First Solar.
o Healthcare: Companies in the healthcare sector might see increased support and funding, making stocks like UnitedHealth Group and Pfizer attractive.
o Technology: Tech giants like Apple and Microsoft could continue to perform well, driven by ongoing innovation and global demand.

Conclusion
The 2024 Presidential election presents both opportunities and risks for investors. A Trump re-election could favor sectors like oil, media, and technology while a loss could shift focus towards renewable energy and healthcare. Investors should stay informed and consider diversifying their portfolios to mitigate risks and capitalize on potential gains, regardless of the election outcome.